I'd say the easiest way to find out the source of all the activity is to install a firewall (with DSL you should be running one anyway). It will tell you what is accessing the net.
Both
Sygate Personal Firewall and
Zone Alarm work well and both are free.
Once installed, it will notify you the first time something tries to access the net, it will name the program and will ask you if you want to allow it out.
XP's built-in firewall doesn't do anything about outbound traffic and if you have it enabled, disable it after installing either of the above. Having two firewalls running is just a wreck waiting to happen.